Five-day Potato Late Blight Forecast now Available for Michigan

With funding from Project GREEEN and the North Central IPM Center, the potato pathology program at Michigan State University (MSU) and Kathleen Baker at Western Michigan University have been developing a disease-forecasting model that generates accurate predictions of late blight risk up to five days in the future.

A potato late blight prediction model has been available to growers through the Late Blight Risk Management website run by MSU since 2000. This model is used to estimate environmental conditions that are favorable for epidemic risk, and then provides fungicide recommendations appropriate to that risk. The new model derives hourly microclimate variables associated with potato late blight risk from the National Weather Service forecast data. This data is then fed into a neural network computer program, which generates high or low risk estimation.

Although this new model is not a replacement for the old model, it increases the amount of information available to growers, enabling them to take the necessary preventative actions to manage late blight risk, such as the timely application of an effective fungicide. The new model is now available on the late blight website by clicking on the 5-Day Forecast” link in the left-hand menu on the home page.”