Jul 15, 20242023/24 US potato crop increases; acreage drop forecast
The 2023/24 U.S. potato crop increased 10% from the previous season, though a 2% drop in potato acreage is forecast in 2024 from 2023 by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
An acreage report released June 28 predicts declines in potato acreage in 10 of the 13 surveyed states.
The USDA Economic Research Service preliminary per capita availability of potatoes for calendar year 2023 is 118 pounds, a 5% increase from 2022. The increase reflects last year’s larger domestic potato crop as well as increased import volumes of fresh, frozen and potato chip products, according to USDA ERS.
The larger 2023 crop has softened prices and increased stocks in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) (September–August).
At 941,000 acres, the 2024 potato planted acreage forecast is a 24,000-acre reduction from 2023 but is 18,000 acres more than the 2020–22 average, according to the report. The Pacific Northwest, which typically accounts for 60% of the domestic crop, saw the most pronounced acreage decreases, with Washington (down 10,000 acres), Idaho (down 5,000 acres), and Oregon (down 3,000 acres) expected to have the largest downward year-over-year adjustments as processors reduce contracted acreage.
Potato acreage reductions are also expected in seven of the 10 other NASS-surveyed states, likely reflecting higher late-season storage volumes and softer open-market prices.
Potato types
In 2024, NASS discontinued publishing potato types as a percentage of planted acres. However, if the percentage of planted acres by potato type (Russet, yellow, white, and red and blue) in 2024 is similar to the three-year average, Russets will account for approximately 70% of planted acres and white varieties will account for 20%, according to the report.
Taking stock of the 2023/24 MY
The 2023/24 potato crop increased 10% from the previous season, the largest year-over-year increase in the 13 NASS-surveyed states since 1996.
Following fall harvest, potatoes are stored to meet fresh-market and processor needs throughout the MY. Stocks also include potato seed to plant the following year’s crop. On June 1, U.S. potato stocks totaled 66.8 million cwt, up 19% from the three-year average June stock volume. June 2024 stocks represented 15% of the estimated crop, compared with 14% a year earlier.
More than 60% of the U.S. potato crop is funneled into the processing market each season. Given the larger stock volume at this time of the MY, frozen and dehydrated processors are expected to use some of the 2023/24 crop into the early part of the 2024/25 MY, according to NASS.
An estimated 194.6 million cwt of potatoes was used for processing by the eight reporting states in 2023/24 through May 31. Season-to-date volume of potatoes processed into dehydrated products (except starch and flour) total 33.6 million cwt, the highest in three years. Potatoes used for dehydrated products represented 17% of total processed volume, which is equal to the previous three-year average for this period.
Fresh monthly potato grower and retail prices
Following a large fall harvest in 2023, fresh potato prices fell sharply below prices observed during the previous 16 months. Monthly grower prices for fresh potatoes in 2023/24 have continued to remain low, according to NASS, ranging from $10.20 to $10.60 per cwt between January and May.
In the 2022/23 MY, fresh potato prices ranged from $21.20 to $23 per cwt during the same period. With ample supplies available, fresh potato retail prices, reflected by Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, also fell in early 2023/24 MY, but have remained relatively flat since January 2024. If fresh grower and retail prices follow previous patterns, prices in July and August will be slightly above averages in January–May 2024.
Reflecting strong prices over the past year for processing potatoes, the producer price index for frozen french fries remained above the previous year. In May 2024, frozen potato products were 15% above the previous year and 49% above the same month two years ago.
Exports and imports
During the last decade, U.S. exports of potatoes and potato products represented 15% of total available supply (fresh-weight basis) each year. Frozen potato products represent more than half of this fresh-weight export volume, followed by dehydrated products (mostly flakes, flour and starch), fresh potatoes, potato chips and canned potato products.
In the last three marketing years, Canada and Mexico accounted for about two-thirds of U.S. fresh potato export volume (excluding seed). During the 2022/23 MY, fresh potato exports to Mexico reached a record-high 348.8 million pounds following expansion of fresh market access to the country in mid-2022. The 2023/24 MY will surpass that record volume, according to NASS.
So far in 2023/24 (September–May), fresh exports to Mexico total 420.9 million pounds, 71% higher than the same period last season. Year-to-date fresh exports to Canada are down 40%, with a larger Canadian potato crop from last season dampening demand for U.S. fresh potatoes. Overall fresh export volume in 2023/24 is up 12% from last year, with increased volume to Mexico offsetting decreases to Canada.
The full report is available here.
