Jun 17, 2020Retail produce sales remain up double digits
The first week of June marks three full months of coronavirus-related shopping patterns. While restaurant competition for the food dollar is gearing up, grocery sales remained highly elevated.
Additionally, trends in trips, basket size, product selections and channel choices continue to change as pandemic shopping develops.
This results in an ever-changing demand landscape for fresh produce, and frozen and canned fruits and vegetables along with it. 210 Analytics, IRI and PMA partnered to understand how retail sales for produce are developing throughout the pandemic and as restaurants around the country are starting to re-open their doors.
During the first week of June, elevated everyday demand drove double-digit produce gains for fresh, frozen and shelf-stable fruits and vegetables. Fresh produce year-over-year growth for the week of June 7 versus the comparable week in 2019 increased 13.2%, the exact same gain as the week prior. Year-to-date, fresh produce sales are up 10.5% over the same time period in 2019. Frozen fruit and vegetables increased the most, up 22.3%. This gain is in spite of limited assortment availability for frozen vegetables and fruit, down 9.5% in average items per store selling.
| Dollar sales gains total store fruit/vegetables versus year ago | ||
| Week ending 6/7 | Year to date through week ending 6/7 | |
| Frozen | +22.3% | +28.5% |
| Shelf stable | +14.4% | +28.8% |
| Fresh | +13.2% | +10.5% |
— Source: IRI
“The fresh produce industry is resilient,” said Joe Watson, VP of Membership and Engagement for the Produce Marketing Association (PMA). “Throughout the COVID-19 crisis, retail has been the primary option for consumers to engage with fresh produce. As restaurant reopening across the country is bringing foodservice back online, demand is growing stronger each week. Understanding the changes and challenges ahead for our industry is of critical importance and staying connected on how we will worth together will bring forth successful solutions for all.”
Fresh produce
Fresh produce generated $1.4 million in sales the week ending June 7 – an additional $166 million in fresh produce sales. Vegetables, up 17.1%, still outperformed fruit (+10.0%), but the gap was the smallest it has been since mid March. Additionally, this is the first week since early May that sales gains held steady versus the slow erosion seen each week. Fresh vegetable gains have been double digits for 12 out of the last 13 weeks.
Fresh versus frozen and shelf-stable
Shoppers on the Retail Feedback Group’s Constant Customer Feedback (CCF) program commented on the improved availability, quality and freshness in the produce department in recent weeks. One shopper wrote, “I always find the freshest produce and have been extremely pleased with the large selection during the COVID crisis. Produce is my most important area to shop in the store.” At $1.4 billion in sales during the week of June 7, fresh produce is significantly larger than shelf stable ($169 million) and frozen fruits and vegetables ($135 million). This means that despite lower growth percentages, fresh has been gaining back much of its lost share. “During the stock up weeks, the share of fresh produce fell to a low of 70%,” said Watson. “During the first week of June, we had to give up a percentage point to shelf-stable, but fresh sales are certainly in much better shape than March and April.”
| Share of total store fruit/vegetable sales | ||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 3/15 | 3/22 | 3/29 | 4/5 | 4/12 | 4/19 | 4/26 | 5/3 | 5/10 | 5/17 | 5/24 | 5/31 | 6/7 | |
| Fresh | 84% | 70% | 70% | 76% | 76% | 77% | 78% | 79% | 79% | 80% | 81% | 82% | 83% | 82% |
| Shelf stable | 10% | 19% | 19% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 10% |
| Frozen | 6% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| Versus comparable week in 2019 | |||
| Top 10 produce items in absolute dollar growth w/e 6/7/2020 | Dollar growth vs. same week year ago | Dollar growth w/e 6/7 |
Total dollar sales w/e 6/7 |
| Cherries | +$25M | +79.2% | $56M |
| Lettuce | +$19M | +12.5% | $173M |
| Tomatoes | +$17M | +23.5% | $88M |
| Berries | +$17M | +12.0% | $156M |
| Potatoes | +$12M | +23.7% | $63M |
| Oranges | +$10M | +57.4% | $28M |
| Peppers | +$10M | +25.3% | $50M |
| Mushrooms | +$6M | +29.1% | $27M |
| Onions | +$5M | +13.9% | $45M |
| Avocados | +$5M | +11.2% | $54M |
Strong demand is driving volume along with dollar gains across the board. While some fruits and vegetables are seeing inflation, for others, prices remain depressed. Inflation is seen for several tropical fruits, including mangoes, tangelos and tangerines.
On the vegetable side, prices for potatoes, corn, beets and garlic are up double-digits over year ago. Continued volume/dollar gaps persist for other areas, including avocados, cherries, grapes and plums. “The strengthening demand coming out of foodservice combined with the continued elevated demand seen in retail will continue to balance out supply and demand in the coming weeks,” said Watson.
Fresh vegetables
All top 10 vegetable items in terms of dollar sales gained double-digits the week ending June 7, with the exception of carrots. Lettuce was the top sales category followed by tomatoes and potatoes. Mushrooms have emerged as a strong seller during the pandemic as well, with double-digit gains ever since the second week of March.
| Top 10 in weekly sales | Dollar sales increase over comparable week in 2019 for week ending… |
Sales week ending | ||||||||
| 3/1 | March (3/8-3-29 |
April (4/5-4/26) |
5/3 | 5/10 | 5/17 | 5/24 | 5/31 | 6/7 | 6/7 | |
| Fresh veg. | +1.7% | +25.8% | +21.5% | +24.5% | +23.6% | +21.6% | +20.0% | +18.8% | +17.1% | $696M |
| Lettuce | +3.3% | +13.1% | +11.0% | +12.4% | +14.4% | +13.4% | +14.7% | +14.1% | +12.5% | $173M |
| Tomatoes | +10.0% | +28.0% | +23.6% | +25.5% | +28.7% | +26.4% | +21.8% | +22.8% | +23.5% | $88M |
| Potatoes | +0.7% | +64.4% | +50.2% | +48.2% | +42.0% | +38.5% | +32.8% | +26.9% | +23.7% | $63M |
| Peppers | -2.0% | +21.9% | +26.8% | +31.7% | +28.8% | +26.9% | +27.8% | +25.8% | +25.3% | $50M |
| Onions | -0.7% | +42.0% | +32.4% | +29.4% | +25.3% | +22.1% | +17.2% | +14.5% | +13.9% | $45M |
| Mushrooms | +3.1% | +22.6% | +30.3% | +37.9% | +35.5% | +32.4% | +32.2% | +30.5% | +29.1% | $27M |
| Cucumber | +6.7% | +18.8% | +19.5% | +23.2% | +20.8% | +18.8% | +22.9% | +20.7% | +19.8% | $26M |
| Carrots | -2.5% | +28.3% | +18.6% | +14.5% | +12.3% | +9.7% | +11.3% | +9.5% | +6.5% | $23M |
| Broccoli | -2.0% | +19.2% | +18.9% | +29.7% | +21.0% | +18.0% | +17.1% | +18.5% | +15.6% | $22M |
| Corn | +16.2% | +23.5% | +14.9% | +26.9% | +31.6% | +29.1% | +17.9% | +21.6% | +12.1% | $21M |
Fresh versus frozen and shelf-stable
Frozen fruits and vegetables had their lowest growth rates since mid March, but were still up nearly 37% for fruit and 19% for vegetables. The same is true for canned fruits and vegetables that have seen tremendous growth ever since mid-March, with the one exception of the week of April 19, which was Easter week in 2019. While growth rates for frozen and canned have consistently exceeded those of fresh, the latter’s size drove much higher absolute dollar gains every week.
What’s next?
Though three months into the pandemic, demand patterns continue to shift. In most states, consumers are able to resume shopping, dining and working out of home. Restaurants and bars are reopening and summer vacations are under way in many states. However, fewer consumers are traveling this summer, kid summer camps are either closed or open with limited capacity in many places and restaurants dine in options have capacity restrictions limiting sales and transactions. Additionally, early June retail sales may have been affected by shortened store hours due to local curfews, particularly in urban areas.
Given the disproportionate impact of the virus and economic collapse over the past three months, it is highly likely that the recovery will be highly disproportionate as well. The local speed of economic recovery along with any levels of latent social anxiety to re-engage with foodservice will drive the demand at retail in the upcoming weeks.
— Anne-Marie Roerink, President, 210 Analytics
Top photo: Alsum Farms & Produce
