Sep 10, 2008United Crop Transition Conference Forecasts Balance in Potato Production
The 2008 potato crop – with reduced acres planted and yields – will be on par with the five year average with no one reporting transcendent yields. That was the general consensus among the regional cooperative members of United Potato Growers of America and United Potato Growers of Canada at the Sept. 10 meeting in Pocatello, Idaho.
The UPGA sponsored crop transition conference was held at the Red Lion Hotel. Regional members from Idaho, Colorado, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, the Red River Valley and Canada were in attendance.
During the opening 90-minute presentation to discuss supply and shipping forecasts for 2008-09, all representatives described a season which began late due to inclement weather with average yields.
One reason offered to explain the reduced acreage is the land demands for other commodities. Higher corn and grain prices have resulted in farmers taking acreage out of potato production and into other crops.
Cary Hoffman, chairman of the UPGA marketing committee and chief executive officer of Mountain King Potatoes, led off the morning session saying the purpose of the meeting was to share information in order to do a better job of supplying customers.
“As potato growers and potato marketeers we have been challenged as never before with land demands,” Hoffman said.
The developing world’s demands on American agriculture also are presenting new pressures on the marketplace, he said.
Jerry Wright, CEO of United Potato Growers of Idaho, led off the discussion of 2008 Idaho crop predictions with a look at past production numbers. In 2004, 355,000 acres were planted and 124 million cwt. were harvested in the state. In 2007, 342, 000 acres were planted and 122 million cwt. were harvested. For 2008, 300,000 acres were planted with an anticipated harvest of 110 million cwt. Wright said almost half the reduction came in the fresh market and 22,000 acres from the process side and fry side.
“This year Idaho has a balanced crop,” Wright said. “There aren’t any excess potatoes. All indications are we will have ample supply but I want to stress, we will not have excess.”
Wright said he expects stable supplies and stable, elevated pricing. With this model, Wright believes the risk of crash markets is significantly reduced.
Field digs on Aug. 1 and Aug. 21 indicated that the 2008 crop was behind by two to three weeks, Wright said. He also cited a University of Idaho study that said the cost of production had increased from $6.10 per cwt. in 2007 to $7.45 in 2008.
The Columbia Basin reported a similar situation to Idaho’s forecast. Crops are two weeks late due to a cold spring with a harvest in line with a five year average. Quality of the crop is very good with a better growing season than they’ve seen in some time. Disease pressure is low to nonexistent and there are no tuberworm problems this year.
Jim Knutzon, the Colorado representative, reported a challenging growing season with a late frost in June and and hail damage to some fields. There will be sufficient supplies for Colorado but no excess, he said.
Similar reports came in from co-op representatives from Wisconsin and the Klamath Basin of Oregon. Wisconsin plantings began late with heavy spring rains, and acreage was reduced by 2,000 acres this year. Growers in Wisconsin have seen no indication of late blight.
Joe Thompson, of Tulelake in the Klamath Basin, reported average yields with not a lot of oversize.
The Red River Valley, the UPGA’s newest coop member, saw about a 14 percent reduction in acreage.
Wayne Dorsey, of United Potato Growers of Canada, said this year’s production levels will be down 10 million cwt. from 2007 and the estimate could drop more, depending on the weather. Prince Edward Island has seen consistent rains over the past week from the hurricane season.
The success of the UPGA cooperatives has created interest internationally. Western European growers in Belgium, The Netherlands and France have asked UPGA to come over and explain how the cooperative works. There are now United of Belgium and United of The Netherlands organizations.
As the session came to a close, Cary Hoffman summarized the coop’s reports. Supply and demand is balanced, there are no excess potatoes, quality is good and there are higher production costs.
-By Bill Schaefer, Idaho Editor
